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New Minnesota poll has Biden with narrow edge over Trump as both remain unpopular

Published 4:42 pm Monday, June 10, 2024

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By Mark Zdechlik, Minnesota Public Radio News

Democratic President Joe Biden carries a slight edge in Minnesota over former Republican President Donald Trump into their rematch, although a new Minnesota Poll shows that advantage is short of the incumbent鈥檚 victory margin four years ago in a must-win state for Democrats.

Biden was preferred by just shy of 45 percent of respondents compared to about 41 percent for Trump in the live-interview poll conducted last week for MPR News, KARE 11 and the Star Tribune. That鈥檚 considered a dead heat given the poll鈥檚 margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points in the survey done by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy.

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A small percentage preferred a third-party candidate 鈥 independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had the support of about 6 percent 鈥 while a sliver remained undecided.

The poll of 800 people reached on their home or cell phones in early June also shows that both major party nominees are deeply unpopular, with more than half of respondents disapproving of each. Many respondents lack enthusiasm about their choice.

That鈥檚 the case with Angela Fairbanks Jacobson, who didn鈥檛 take part in the poll but discussed her preference for Biden in an interview after she donated clothes at a free-store near the south Minneapolis intersection known as George Floyd Square.

鈥淚鈥檓 just, I鈥檓 sad,鈥 Fairbanks Jacobson said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 unfortunate that we don鈥檛 have younger candidates, but it is what it is right now.鈥

portrait of a woman with glasses

Angela Fairbanks Jacobson of St. Paul says she’ll vote for Joe Biden but wishes the presidential candidates were younger.
Mark Zdechlik | MPR News

About 3 in 10 Biden supporters said they are very enthusiastic about his reelection effort. Slightly more, about 36 percent, were somewhat enthusiastic and the rest were not very or not at all enthusiastic for the candidate they plan to vote for.

More than 61 percent of Trump supporters are very enthusiastic about his candidacy and about 18 percent lack much enthusiasm.

In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Minnesota by about 7 percentage points. It was a far bigger gap than in 2016 when Trump came up fewer than 2 points short of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. The state鈥檚 10 electoral college votes are deemed critical in Biden鈥檚 reelection calculus.

In the new poll, the category of economy and jobs was the top issue for more than a quarter of respondents. That slightly trailed the state of democracy as a driving issue.

Democratic respondents said protecting democracy is their main concern followed distantly by climate change. Republicans pointed to the economy as their top concern followed by immigration.

Fairbanks Jacobson said her vote in November will be about preserving the nation鈥檚 democracy.

鈥淒efinitely supporting anybody but Trump,鈥 Fairbanks Jacobson explained. 鈥淚 feel that Trump is a threat to our democracy. We do absolutely not want a dictator.鈥

a man with a cap smiles for a portrait

“I feel he’s done an OK job,” C.Terrence Anderson of Minneapolis says of Biden. “I think there’s definitely been some successes like infrastructure and things like that, but very disappointing in Gaza. So I think it’s a mixed bag.鈥
Mark Zdechlik | MPR News

Around the corner, 36-year-old C. Terrence Anderson shared those fears that are also driving his support for Biden.

鈥淚 feel he鈥檚 done an OK job,鈥 Anderson said of Biden. 鈥淚 think there鈥檚 definitely been some successes in like infrastructure and things like that, but very disappointing in Gaza. So I think it鈥檚 a mixed bag.鈥

Along Main Street in downtown North Branch, an exurb 45 minutes north of the Twin Cities, the sentiment is different.

Sean Moe, 38, was resolute in his support for Trump and his disdain for Biden.

鈥淚 think Biden鈥檚 screwed up the country,鈥 Moe said. 鈥淓verything is expensive.鈥

Moe said he used to enjoy grocery shopping but now hates it because of the high prices.

a man smiles for a portrait

On Main Street in North Branch, Sean Moe was resolute in his support for Trump and his disdain for President Joe Biden.
Mark Zdechlik | MPR News

Standing next to Moe, 46-year-old Justin Burvee also had nothing positive to say about the incumbent.

鈥淗e hurt us more than he鈥檚 helped us,鈥 Burvee said. 鈥淚n every way possible, like [the] economy.聽 I mean, I haven鈥檛 seen one plus. I mean, gas prices, food, I mean, everything rose. It鈥檚 terrible.鈥

The poll found Trump to be far more popular among men than Biden. It鈥檚 flipped among women, who are strongly in Biden鈥檚 column.

Kaytee Broskoff, 22, was at a park in North Branch with her young son, Easton, as Hanna, the family dog, looked on. Broskoff said it鈥檚 hard for her to afford what she needs, and she blames Biden for inflation.

鈥淚t鈥檚 definitely a struggle to be a single mom and live in today鈥檚 world,鈥 said Broskoff, who added she might not vote this fall.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 know who I would vote for,鈥 she said. 鈥淚f I did vote, I would probably vote for Trump and I say that because my parents support him.鈥

Biden has a dominant edge in the populous Hennepin and Ramsey counties; Trump led in all other geographic regions.

While the new Minnesota Poll found tepid support for Trump and Biden, roughly 55 percent of respondents said they approve of DFL Sen. Amy Klobuchar鈥檚 job performance. She won her current term in 2018 with about 60 percent of the vote.

Klobuchar is running for a fourth term, with her November opponent to be decided in a multi-candidate GOP primary. Former professional basketball player and podcaster Royce White has the Republican endorsement but former Navy officer Joe Fraser has been pushed by prominent Republicans as an alternative.

础听聽found that Democratic U.S. Senate candidates are outperforming Biden in key battleground states.

It remains to be seen how much Klobuchar might be able to help Biden in a seemingly competitive Minnesota.

Editor鈥檚 note: For more poll details and methodology around the poll, check out MPR News鈥 sister organization,聽.